The $13 billion denim industry — a life preserver for the sinking apparel industry the past year — may be fraying at the high end of its product line.
While old standbys including Levi's, Lee and Wrangler are still seeing sales increases that likely will continue in the coming year, sales increases for pricey premium jeans will likely occur only in the under-$200 category, according to market research firm NPD Group.
Sales of these and even pricier jeans had soared deep into the recession — up 17% last year alone, says NPD — as retailers and apparel makers benefited from a largely recession-resistant jones for jeans. But really pricey denim pants may be falling out of fashion.
"The economy shifted, and all of a sudden those outrageous prices actually look outrageous," says NPD chief retail analyst Marshal Cohen. "The superpremium jean business has dropped off tremendously because the inspirational shoppers aren't going up that high, and luxury customers aren't buying two or three pairs anymore."
While at least one high-end manufacturer boasts of planning no adjustments for the coming year, others have dropped prices and are offering additional product lines to consumers who want the brand appeal without the $300-plus price tags. And Gap plans to take advantage of the downscaling of denim next month when it introduces a $60 line of what it says are great-fitting jeans designed in part by hires from premium jean companies.
Total jeans sales were up 2.3% for the three months ended in February, NPD says, while apparel sales overall declined 6.3% for the same period.
That three-month period was the most challenging in terms of consumer spending, so any growth during that time is significant, Cohen says.
Shoppers such as Debi DeFrank, 42, helped drive the recession trend of jeans-buying. DeFrank, a Fox News makeup artist from Ellicott City, Md., owns about 25 pairs, including several by high-end manufacturers True Religion, 7 for All Mankind and Citizens of Humanity.
"I'm always looking for the pair of jeans that fits the best," says DeFrank. "Then I go and shop some more and say, 'No, these are the ones that fit me the best.' "
DeFrank, who travels extensively for work, says jeans are the perfect thing to pack. "I don't want to have to put dress pants in my suitcase."
Instead, she wears a pair of her many light-colored jeans by day and her darker ones with heels at night for dinner. There are skinny jeans for certain boots and every other possible cut to go with the dozens of shoes and 10 pairs of boots she owns.
By Jayne O'Donnell and Michelle Walbaum, USA TODAY
"Once you finally find a brand that fits your body, you stick with it," says Carlene Iglas of Bath, NY. Carlene's favorite jeans come from Eddie Bauer and she likes them because of their durability. "They last through countless washes!"
"I don't mind spending $75-125 on jeans because they are a permanent investment in my wardrobe," says Mark Gershman of Scottsdale, Ariz, shown here in his favourite Lucky Brand jeans.
I wear jeans all the time, but when I need to buy a new pair I break into the same type of sweat as I do if you told me were going bathing suit shopping," says Nicole Stith, who terms denim a 'necessary evil' in her closet.
Dave Daucanski of West Palm Beach, Fla, shops the Web for reduced prices on designer jeans, including his favourite brands, Chip & Pepper and Adriano Goldschmied.
Working from home has made jeans a staple in the wardrobe of Sherry Natoli of Tampa. "In my corporate life, I wore suits & heels everyday. It's a joy not to be doing that!" she says.
"I think that jeans are one of the things that you can splurge on," says Marietta Landon, of Douglasville, Ga., shown here in her favorite Citizens of Humanity jeans. She paid $150 for them two years ago and says she still wears them all the time.